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It already matches the data it aims to replace.

Read the L0 calibration paper  ·  Read the dynamics design paper +  ·  + Read the UK VAT threshold paper

diff --git a/papers/vat-threshold/index.html b/papers/vat-threshold/index.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..89e0b5d --- /dev/null +++ b/papers/vat-threshold/index.html @@ -0,0 +1,93 @@ + + + + + +UK VAT threshold paper — populace + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
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research paper

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+ An open firm-level microsimulation of the UK VAT registration threshold +

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+ The paper builds an open synthetic firm population for the UK VAT + registration threshold, prices level, shape, and rate reforms on it, and + shows which near-threshold conclusions calibrated synthetic data can and + cannot support. +

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+ Read online + Download PDF + Reproduction code +
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anchor result
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On a common £184.8bn 2023–24 base: raising the threshold to £100,000 costs £753m, a graduated taper £520m, and 10%/15% reduced-rate bands £484m/£242m.
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method
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Synthetic firm records calibrated to ONS, HMRC, and OBR aggregates, with the near-threshold density pinned side-consistently to the OBR's £1,000-band data; a region-confined behavioural layer nests the static costing exactly.
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transparency
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Sub-band structure is target-inherited, provably: placebo regeneration returns zero excess mass, and an uncalibrated band edge alone lands within 10% of the administrative bunching estimate.
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+ paper +

Web paper

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+ Open full page +
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